It’s been more than five years since the pandemic and employers are still trying, unsuccessfully in many cases, to force their workers to

return to the office

.

It’s not shocking to see employees object because the bottom line is that a return to the office constitutes a pay cut for them.

The Ontario government is one of the latest to say employees have to be in the office five days a week, though not until 2026. Premier Doug Ford wants municipalities to do the same.

Others, such as Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal and Royal Bank of Canada, are making their employees commute at least four days a week come September.

What’s in it for the employees besides a loss of time, increased transportation costs and a higher budget for lunch and other expenses?

Employees got a financial break when the COVID-19 lockdown happened. There was a social impact, but anyone with children or family pressures gladly took that on even though — let’s face it — that burden still falls mainly on women.

I’m not going to debate

productivity

. Employers say they are losing it by having

remote workers

, while employees maintain the opposite.

But the financial debate comes down to who is paying to bring people into the office. Traditionally, the worker bears those costs.

“The classic simple model of cities is everybody working downtown and they all have to commute. People traded the lower cost of a house in the suburbs for the longer commute,” Tsur Somerville, a professor at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business, said.

The pandemic let those commuters win on two counts: they got a bigger house and no commute, but household savings also rose to $350 billion.

I’ll declare my bias, having left a job that had moved to five days in the office, while the Financial Post has a

flexible workplace policy

.

Nancy D’Onofrio, a director at recruitment and human resources company Randstad Canada, said workplace issues are at the forefront of negotiations today.

“Flexibility is key. It’s just massive and people are still looking for it,” she said. “Based on our stats, flexibility ranks supreme.”

Among 26,000 people surveyed globally by Randstad, 55 per cent won’t take a job without scheduling flexibility. Another 37 per cent of workers quit a previous job because of a lack of flexibility.

“The market is working for employers and people are scared to make moves,” D’Onofrio said. “But when the (job) market improves, there could be waves of people (leaving) in the future.”

As a result, employers need to shift their strategy, especially for high-demand talent.

“Sometimes employers struggle to find bilingual talent,” she said, adding it is clear that people will take less money in exchange for flexibility. “If you are saying you have to come into the office, it will shrink your talent pool.”

David Cairns, a longtime broker at CBRE Group Inc. and now a strategist at Kadence Inc., a global hybrid workplace platform, said the latest return-to-office mandates will not work.

“Look at (the data) when it comes to cellphone pings, badge swipes, etc., and ‘work from home’ has been flat since 2023,” he said, adding that new return-to-office mandates might add a “couple of percentage points.”

Cairns points out that pre-pandemic, offices were occupied 50 per cent to 60 per cent of the time.

But there is a rising wave of returnees to offices in Toronto based on data from the Strategic Regional Research Alliance that measures the percentage of employees returning to the office compared to pre-COVID-19 times.

As of July 15, average weekly occupancy was 78 per cent compared to pre-pandemic. Peak day occupancy is 88 per cent and the low is 51 per cent. That looks like a lot of people still have flexible work arrangements.

“We did this same thing last year,” Cairns said about new mandates. “The only thing that looks a little different is that there are a few more. But I call it sentiment, not reality. The data shows it is not reality, nor will it be.”

Jamie Grossman, managing principal and a broker at tenant representation firm Cresa, said there has been an uptick in leasing demand, but it’s not one-size-fits-all for every industry.

“Finance is leaning more into the office. There is some flexibility, but there is a point now where people get an office or workstation that is their own,” he said, adding that doesn’t mean it gets used five days a week. “We will never go back to what pre-pandemic was.”

Cairns said the math is simple. Daily commute times average 60 minutes round trip, which amounts to about $42 in driving costs based on mileage rates. The time cost of commuting based on average wages is worth $44 daily.

“It’s a double hit. It’s obvious why employees favour

hybrid

,” he said, especially after adding in costs such as the “uniform tax” of office life, which he calculates at $8 per day. Food and coffee are $6 to $8 per day cheaper at home with healthier options. Utility costs go up, he said, but only $3 to $5 daily.

But what about your career path and salary?

“The long tail of this is no,” Cairns said, predicting that younger chief executives will grow into leadership roles and offer flexible working.

Jon Pinkus, an employment lawyer at Samfiru Tumarki LLP, said unionized government employees have limited choices legally.

But if your employment agreement is unclear, a change in your workplace could amount to constructive dismissal and lead to a settlement.

“I haven’t been deluged with clients,” Pinkus said about workers looking for a legal out. “It might change as these things come into effect.”

In the case of specific industries such as the oligopolies that are the banks, he said movement is inhibited because you can’t find a job in the same industry and that limits pushback.

Some people want to be back at the office, and, in some industries, there will be no choice because the employee has no leverage.

In others, such as high-demand technology jobs, employers are going to pay more for a rigid workplace policy.

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The genie is out of the bottle; people will negotiate on flexible workplace policy. Flexibility is part of compensation. There is no turning back.

• Email: gmarr@postmedia.com