Grocery prices

climbed four per cent in September compared with a year earlier, according to the latest

consumer price index

from Statistics Canada. The increase shows that

food inflation

is once again climbing after a period of slower growth.

However, Canadians don’t need statistics to tell them their grocery bills have gone up. The cost of food began rising sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic and continues to take a significant bite out of household budgets.

Here’s what is driving the latest price changes at the grocery store.

Which food item had the highest price increase?

Over the past year, coffee has had the sharpest increases. Coffee prices were up by 28.6 per cent last month. The surge has been attributed to poor weather conditions in major coffee-producing countries, such as Brazil and Vietnam, as well as

trade

tensions and the

tariffs

imposed by United States President

Donald Trump

earlier this year.

Canadians are already feeling the effect of the increase. Most notably, Tim Hortons raised its coffee prices earlier this month, increasing them by 1.5 per cent per cup. The company cited the rising cost of imported beans and dairy products as the reason for the increase.

The price hikes suggest that global supply pressures are now trickling down to everyday consumers, making the morning cup of coffee noticeably more expensive and adding further strain to household budgets already challenged by the high cost of food nationwide.

What other foods had significant price hikes?

Protein staples were among the biggest contributors to higher grocery bills. The price of fresh or frozen beef rose 14 per cent year over year, driven by extreme weather in the central plains and Prairies of the U.S., resulting in smaller cow herds.

The price of chicken and pork also climbed last month, by 1.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively, year over year, following broader trends in rising meat prices across the country.

Seafood is another protein costing consumers more. The price of seafood overall increased by 5.5 per cent in September compared with the previous year, with the price of canned salmon rising by 8.3 per cent that same month.

Other notable year-over-year price increases last month included nuts and seeds, which rose by 15.7 per cent. Trump’s 50 per cent tariff on Brazilian goods is a big reason for the hike, since that country is one of Canada’s biggest Brazil nut, cashew and peanut sources.

The price of dairy items such as eggs and ice cream also rose, up by 1.4 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively.

All of these increases reflect either continued global pressure on animal feed, trade tensions or volatile climate conditions.

Which food items had the biggest monthly jumps?

Many food items had steady year-over-year price increases, but the month-over-month rise in the cost of cucumbers was sharpest, jumping 24.7 per cent in September from August. However, the price of cucumbers only rose by 2.2 per cent year over year.

This is likely due to seasonal fluctuations, because cucumber supply is at its peak during the late summer. Cucumbers are also more sensitive to seasonal changes compared with other vegetables because of their lower tolerance for extreme temperature. The growing season for cucumbers begins to end around September, driving prices up due to lower supply.

There was also less rainfall in certain parts of Canada last summer, including Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. This caused more crop stress, resulting in bigger month-over-month price increases for cucumbers as well as other fresh vegetables. For example, lettuce had a 9.3 per cent month-over-month price increase from August to September.

Did any food items become less expensive?

Fortunately, not everything in the grocery aisle is getting pricier. Some have even become less expensive.

The most significant price decline was for berries, with prices falling by 13 per cent last month compared with a year ago. This can be partially attributed to Morocco doubling blueberry exports from 2024 to 2025. It shipped 1,900 tons of blueberries to Canada, worth $19 million.

Canada’s 2024 berry harvest was also remarkable, reaching a 5.2 per cent increase in total Canadian fruit production in 2024 — at about 930,982 metric tons — making it the third-highest level in a decade. A surplus in supply would contribute to a lower year-over-year inflation rate.

Edible fats and oils fell about nine per cent compared with last September, while the cost of butter and cheese dropped by 1.5 and 0.4 per cent, respectively.

Overall, the latest data shows we have an unwelcome guest: inflation has reserved its spot at the dinner table.

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