The bond market doesn’t make headlines nearly as often as its more exciting cousin, the stock market, but when it does, look out. At least twice in 2025, bond investors have reacted negatively to U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies, spooked first by his trade war and more recently by the growing U.S. government debt. Those join a list of other recent bond market tantrums that suggest investors have growing concerns about the state of government finances around the world. But just what is the bond market, how does it work and why is it such a problem when investors get jittery about it? The Financial Post explains.

What is the bond market?

The bond market is a financial market where governments, companies and investors can issue, buy and sell debt in the form of — you guessed it — bonds. For governments, selling a new bond raises the funds needed to finance public spending, while a business might use the proceeds for corporate operations or an acquisition. In return, bonds provide investors with periodic interest payments, usually at a fixed interest rate, and guarantee the repayment of the principal at maturity.

Government bonds can come in a range of durations from months all the way up to decades. For example, U.S. government debt ranges from one-month Treasury bills to 30-year Treasury bonds. Investors are especially focused on the U.S. bond market because it is the largest in the world, worth about US$47 trillion. This accounts for about 40 per cent of the US$142 trillion global bond market as of 2025, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a U.S. industry trade group. As of the fourth quarter of 2024, investors held US$28 trillion of government debt in

Treasuries

.

Why are people worried about the bond market?

Investors buy government bonds because they are seen as safe, especially in contrast to stocks, which can carry more risk, especially during economic turbulence. Bonds pay out steady interest, and there is little risk the government of a major economy such as the U.S. will not repay the principal at maturity — or at least that’s the theory. In reality, investors increasingly appear to be questioning whether government bonds, in particular those issued by the U.S., are such a safe bet.

Carl Gomez, chief economist and head of market analytics for CoStar Group, said the bond market, like any other market for financial assets, depends on buyers and sellers making trades based on their expectations regarding market conditions. And some recent decisions by the U.S. government have investors feeling like they are taking on more risk with bonds, he said.

When Trump unveiled his plan for massive

tariffs

on other countries on “Liberation Day” in April, it sent shockwaves through the stock market. Although normally investors would buy bonds as a counterweight to equity risk, something unexpected happened. There was a selloff in the bond market as well, signalling that buyers were losing confidence in the U.S. as a safe place to store their money.

The 10-year Treasury yield spiked from less than four per cent on April 4 to 4.5 per cent on April 8, while the 30-year yield topped five per cent.

“People are worried the independence of the Fed could be eroded to some extent, people are worried that the U.S. administration’s policies have not been friendly to the allies or to the providers of capital for the U.S. market,” said Jason Daw, the head of North American rates strategy at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Capital Markets. “This has led the market to believe that (foreign) investors are going to be investing less in the U.S and maybe more in their domestic markets.”

And with the U.S.’s massive debt, investors question the government’s fiscal prudence, weakening demand for U.S. bonds.

What about Trump’s ‘big, beautiful tax bill’?

Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill led to the second big spike in yields this year. Introduced in May, the bill included extended tax cuts and an increase to the national debt ceiling, and would add nearly US$4 trillion to America’s US$36 trillion in debt if passed.

In the immediate aftermath of the tax bill announcement on May 22, the 10-year yield closed at 4.58 per cent, its highest level since 2023.

To make matters worse, credit rating agency Moody’s Corp. downgraded America’s credit rating due to the country’s inability to manage its ballooning debt.

Following that up, there was tepid demand at a US$16 billion 20-year Treasury bond auction, another key indicator of the bond market’s woes, pushing yields to 5.1 per cent.

“When the government goes to borrow, they auction up the bonds, and get the money from the Treasury,” Gomez said. “If there are fewer buyers, then that price is going to come down, and the yields will need to go up on those bonds to make them sellable.”

How are yields involved?

When people talk about trouble in the bond market, they often talk about yields spiking. The yield on a bond is how much you would expect to earn on your money per year if you held the bond through to maturity, including both interest payments and price return. While the interest payment on a bond is usually fixed, yields adjust to prevailing expectations about where

interest rates

are heading.

For example, if investors think they will be able to buy a new bond at an interest rate of five per cent, they aren’t likely to want an existing bond with an interest rate of only four per cent. So the price of that older bond falls. The big thing to remember is that yields and prices are inversely related: If yields go up or spike, it means the value of the bonds people are holding goes down.

“Similar to how the value of a stock or the equity market could change, the value of bonds changes depending on people’s expectations of future interest rates and depending on when you purchase the bond (which could be) at a value that is above or below its maturity level,” said Daw.

If bond buyers are concerned that the U.S. fiscal position is deteriorating, they are likely going to want a higher return to offset the risk of lending to Uncle Sam. So, yields go up, and prices go down.

Bond yields

have been rising across the globe — a striking reversal in a long-term trend of declining yields that persisted over the past 20 to 30 years thanks to modest

inflation

and economic stability. With inflation higher post-COVID and due to economic jitters from the U.S.-initiated trade war, there is less demand for especially long-term government bonds globally, making it more expensive for governments to borrow.

What happens if the U.S. can’t sell bonds?

If the U.S. has trouble selling its bonds at rates that allow it to service its debt, it could be forced to raise interest rates to higher and higher levels to placate investors seeking compensation for taking on the greater risk.

Increasing interest rates could create a vicious cycle of higher rates making it more expensive for the government to service its debt, leading to bigger deficits and more debt, producing greater risk that buyers will want to be compensated for with higher interest rates.

Most importantly, the U.S. relies on the sale of its Treasury bonds to fund its operations. If buyers don’t want to buy bonds, the government could struggle to pay its bills, especially if there aren’t sufficient tax revenues, Gomez said.

“Ultimately, it can lead to a financial crisis,” he said. “It circles down across the whole financial system into the real economy.”

Gomez pointed to Greece as an example. The country toppled into a government debt crisis in 2007, exacerbated by the global financial crisis, and struggled to recover. Major financial rating agencies flagged Greek bonds with “junk” status in 2010. The country’s unemployment rate hit a record 28 per cent in 2014, and poverty and homelessness snowballed.

“This doesn’t usually happen to a well-developed country like the United States, given its position in the world,” Gomez said, noting the Fed could step in and be “the buyer of last resort.”

Still, this could lead to major inflation risks caused by “printing money” and potentially call into question America’s long-term debt sustainability, which would result in higher interest rates over the long run, he said.

What is happening in the bond market in Canada?

Although Canada’s bond market typically follows the same direction as its southern neighbour, Gomez said it has hit a resistance point due to the

Bank of Canada

cutting interest rates out of step with the

U.S. Federal Reserve

. Canadian bond yields are getting tugged upward, influenced by what is occurring in the U.S., but they are also being pulled down by the central bank.

“Everybody probably expected at the end of last year that we’d see lower interest rates, lower mortgages,” Gomez said. “But what’s really happening is that the bond market and bond yields in Canada are just going sideways.”

If the Fed starts cutting rates more than the Bank of Canada, Daw said it is likely the Canadian bond market will underperform the

U.S. Treasury market

over the next six to 12 months.

Canada’s central bank is in a tight spot, as it weighs the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to growth brought on by U.S. tariffs.

Does Canada’s government spending and debt put our bond market at risk?

The other factor weighing on Canadian market sentiment is the expectation that the federal government and provinces will be issuing plenty of bonds this year to increase spending to support the economy through the trade war.

When the supply of bonds goes up, this puts downward pressure on bond prices and upward pressure on bond yields.

Canada’s debt position doesn’t look as grim as the U.S., but it is growing. The U.S. debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was 123 per cent in 2024, while Canada’s amounted to 110.8 per cent — but Canada’s debt to GDP ratio has been on an upward path since 2022 and is markedly higher than its pre-pandemic levels (where it hovered around the 90 per cent range).

  • Why everyone is worried about the bond market — especially Donald Trump
  • Bond market volatility spells trouble for investors

Gomez predicted that the Canadian bond market will outperform the U.S. but added that inflation and global factors will still influence yields.

“The thing about the U.S. is that it is still the centre of the capital markets across the world,” said Gomez. “So, what happens in the U.S. invariably starts impacting the rest of the world.”

• Email: slouis@postmedia.com

Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.