CIBC Capital Markets

hiked its 2026

price target for gold

to US$6,000 an ounce from US$4,500 predicting that the factors that

drove bullion

65 per cent higher in 2025 will continue this year.

“We expect the same demand drivers from 2025 to remain in place,” the team of analysts led by Anita Soni, said in a note on Wednesday.

Extreme volatility

shook the

gold trade

last week and early this week, pushing down the price of bullion 15 per cent below US$5,000 after United States President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to take over as the next chair of the Federal Reserve after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.

Warsh is seen as “hawkish,” which could support a stronger American dollar. The U.S. dollar and gold typically move in the opposite direction to each other, with a lower U.S. dollar making it cheaper to purchase gold.

Gold was trading

Wednesday at around US$4,900 after rebounding above US$5,000.

The median forecast among analysts Bloomberg tracks for the price of gold in the first quarter of 2026 is US$4,400, while the forward price is US$5,044, according to Bloomberg.

Forecasts for gold have been a moving target as bullion moved up 40 per cent at the start of the year from US$4,020 to US$5,600, with much of the gain occurring in the final week of last month.

CIBC analysts attributed the meteoric climb to a “highly eventful” January, which included the capture by U.S. forces of the former president of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro, threats of U.S. aggression against Greenland and further warnings by Trump of increased tariffs and sanctions.

CIBC doesn’t expect the turmoil to change.

Looking ahead, “we … see heightened geopolitical uncertainty, largely originating from the ever-changing U.S. tariff policies and increased aggression towards countries that stand in the way of Trump’s objectives,” the analysts said. They also expect the U.S. dollar to come under pressure from interest rate cuts and the “de-dollarization/dollar debasement trade.”

Further out, CIBC set a 2027 price target for gold of US$6,500 and US$6,000 for 2028. Analysts see prices pulling back to US$5,500 in 2029, US$5,000 in 2030 and US$4,500 in 2031.

CIBC isn’t the first to call for gold at US$6,000.

David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., last year called for gold to hit US$6,000 in 2026. He didn’t stop there. In a

column

for the Financial Post, Rosenberg said there is “a very good chance this bull market ends with a price peak of US$12,000 per ounce,” citing a global imbalance between gold demand and supply.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. ramped up their gold forecast earlier this week from US$5,055 to US$6,300, while Deutsche Bank AG analysts restated their forecast for bullion to hit US$6,000, according to a Morningstar report.

Besides the price upgrade, CIBC also had some

stock market suggestions

for how to play the price of gold.

For those investors who want exposure to

precious metals

, CIBC’s top large cap picks are Agnico Eagle Ltd. (AEM:TSX), Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX), Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS:TSX) and Franco Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX).

Outside the large caps, CIBC likes Iamgold Corp. (IMG:TSX), G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN:TSX), Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI), Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA:TSX) and Discovery Silver Corp. (DSV:TSX).

CIBC also hiked its ratings on Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX:TSX) and Endeavour Mining PLC (EDV:TSX) to outperform.

• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com

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